Monday, November 10, 2008

A far-fetched bowl scenario?

Look at this scenario, and see how far-fetched this is. In order to do this, we need to make the following assumptions, none of which are terribly ridiculous.

1) All BCS rules are followed to the letter. This means that only two teams in each conference are allowed in the BCS. This also means that 1 non-BCS conference gets an autobid if they are in the top 12, and that the Big East and ACC still get their autobids, even though they suck.
2) USC wins the Pac-10. They don't control their own destiny thanks to Oregon State, but based on Oregon State's schedule, I'd call this very likely.
3) We beat Penn State, with Ohio State winning the Big 10 just so I can make a point. I realize that the likelihood of us beating Penn State isn't very good, but let me have my moment a second.
4) The polls reflect MSU's win and Penn State's loss.

So, this would give us this selection for the BCS (Note: 10 overall bids for the BCS).
ACC winner- Doesn't matter who.
Big 12 winner- We'll give it Texas Tech for now, but it really doesn't matter.
Big 10 winner- Needs to be Ohio State as stated above.
Big East winner- Doesn't matter who.
Pac 10 winner- Needs to be USC, as stated above.
SEC winner- We'll give it to Alabama, but it won't matter if Florida wins.

This leaves us with 3 autobids left. We'll base the teams taken off of current BCS rankings.

#3 is Texas. They would take a bid. I fully expect a second Big 12 team, whoever it is, to make a BCS bowl.
#4 is Florida. They would take a bid. I fully expect Florida to make a BCS bowl.
#5 is Oklahoma, they cannot take a bid because 2 Big 12 teams are already in the BCS. Same with #10 Georgia (for SEC), #12 Missouri and #13 Oklahoma State.

This leaves these top remaining at large teams, based on rankings for right now. #10 Boise State, #14 Ball State and #15 Michigan State! Yes, that's right, we'd be third in line for a BCS bowl. But, if we beat Penn State, we'd certainly pass Ball State. And is it completely unreasonable that we couldn't move past Boise for the #10 spot, or something like that. Especially if it is convincing! Yes, I am suggesting that, if we beat Penn State, there is a good chance that we would make a BCS bowl game. Even without winning the Big 10. What does this mean?

1) All this is moot without us beating Penn State. We must win. We must root for us to win, and pray that it happens.
2) It'd be so much easier just to make the Rose Bowl, so let's also root for Ohio State to lose. It'd help quite a bit. Yes, this means that if OSU didn't lose to Illinois, we need to root for Michigan.
3) Root for USC and against Oregon State. We need USC to take that autobid. USC would certainly take an at large bid above us.
4) Root against Utah and Boise State. Yeah, I know you like to see the little guy to make it. But, it'd be so much easier if one of them is out of the picture (keep in mind, if Utah loses and Boise State wins out, they take an autobid that I described earlier).
5) Expect that we'll probably lose to Penn State anyway and accept the Outback bowl. It's nice anyways. New Years Day bowl, after all

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